As we say here in Brazil, good morning for who? With more than 400k deaths by corona virus and a vicious and negationist federal government, Brazil is plunging into the deeps faster than millennials with mental health issues. I’m journalist and political science specialist, and I’ve been working with public policies, public administration and politics the last 10 years of my life, so, without considering myself an specialist, but taking in consideration all that I know, feel and see everyday, I decide to bring to you (whoever may be) three scenarios about what may happen on Brazil — 10 years from now.
But, first, what is happening in Brazil now?
Brazil is not in chaos because Brazilians don’t know how to react except when told to. From 2013, and aggravated by Dilma’s impeachment in 2016 and Bolsonaro elections in 2018, the country has been pulled to a gap between two very polarized forces: the far right, as in many other parts of the world is showing its wings off, supporting hate movements in all political spectrum, and the moderate left (all which orbit the worker’s party — or PT) that have ruled the country from 2002 to 2016. There are other major forces? Yes, the brazilian elite, the press and other actors move the strings in this bad puppeteer dance.
Since the election in 2018, the old conservative forces (and the almost all the elite) decided to support Bolsanaro, but not even they imagine that he was so dumb, egoical, maniacal and totally unept for the position. Almost three years from his election, the federal government is a joke, that is doing all they can to stay in place, but has not been able to handle the pandemic nor the countless scandals that Bolsonaro’s family is up to the neck. However, some uneducated people from Brazil (that is not that much scholarly, let be clear) have supported Bolsonaro, because they believe in his “simple” way to communicate or in the armageddon of fake news that he and his government produce. Also, some of the elites that help put him in power still support his delirious vision, and will until they stop making money with others misery. Based on the last faithfull research, I would say that almost one third of Brazilians still support Bolsonaro’s government, as hard it is to believe.
After the political overthrow of Dilma (it was not a coup in the traditional sense, but it was a: We can’t go with this anymore! from the brazilians deputies in the congress, and major part of the population bought it, so, nothing to do would delegitimize it — after all, what majority believes is reality, no matter the facts — that’s how things works in Brazil and a lot of other places around the globe. I’ve been there, I know. If it is not this way where you are, consider yourself lucky) and the political persecution of the left ‘s biggest leader, President Lula, a.k.a. Beard, things were bad for the progressivist. The inability to make a cohesive pluripartidary front (Brazil has 33 political party, I would say that at least 10 of then are left aligned) or even support together the more accepted name for presidential election of 2018 (it was not PT heirs, Haddad, it was PDT big dog, Ciro Gomes), they shrink and keep to maintain an not organized resistance and opposition for Bolsonaro.
But, after the lunacies of Bolsonaro not even some sectors who supported him before and are more liberals (or elite-aligned), like governor of Sao Paulo state, João Doria, begin to throw shit at the fan and see what happens. Now, with the newly (and deserved) liberty of president Lula, the old Beard is trying to organize our 30% (or maybe more) of left aligned population and political leaders to beat Bolsonaro in 2022 elections.
The rest of Brazil’s population, almost 40%, I guess, mostly middle class workers, and people for B, C and D classes, are just trying to survive daily while the circus is on fire. They have critics to both sides and are really just trying to stay alive, dealing with coronavirus (even because most of them are still working normally as nobody respects social distancing in Brazil — don’t ask me why) and the economics effects of the pandemic (Brazil has now more living with hunger and extreme poverty than on the last 10 years) and whatever may God decretes to appear below the Equator line.
Now, that you’ve see how shitty is the situation, what the fuck will happen with Brazil? Hard to say, but, I love to guess. Below are my three main scenarios until 2031.
SCENARIO 1
Bolsonaro wins in 2022 and the right-aligned or center-right wins in 2026
You don’t need to worry if you’re white and/or rich. The recent polls, as reproduced below, show that Bolsonaro, even facing Lula, has chances to win in 2022. Apparently, it doesn’t matter having no control over the pandemic and people facing death by the thousands every day. This represents the victory of the old Brazil, the racist Brazil, the devilish and stupid Brazil, that always have been there, but was shy since the end of Brazilian Ditactorship, in the 1980. By 2025, the dollar could be as high as 10 Brazilian reais, we’ll have a lot of inflation and people will be struggling. Today, the poorest are not able anymore to buy meat or cooking gas, imagine in this scenario? It’s good, tough if you’re an investor and don’t care too much for what happens in Brazil. If Bolsonaro wins again, I find it rather difficult for the moderate left to fill this vacuum of power in 2026, so, my bets are up to an equally right-aligned wining or a more center, but liberal e right oriented one, taking after Bolsonaro em 2026.
We’ll have protests and some riots if Bolsonaro wins, but we won’t have a civil war or a coup or nothing like it (I guess), but will be more difficult for Bolsonaro to rule since the opposition will be more organized in the future that is now (they do not have choice), but I don’t think it matters because Bolsonaro not care about ruling at all, so, no problems.
SCENARIO 2
Lula wins in 2022 and the left or center-left wins in 2026
Well, things will probably be better for the people, especially the ones who need it the most, but Lula, and whoever succeeds him, will have trouble unmaking the chaos of Bolsonaro public policies. I guess, we’ll need at least 15 to 20 years to come back to where Brazil was before (same level as 2014, 2015 — economic/social development speaking). Lula will certainly need to keep an eye in the Congress (that will still be very right-aligned and, in Brazil, tends to be very conservative) to make sure that he has governability, but I don’t think that will be an issue for the old Beard. With a good first mandate, Lula could be reelected or leave for some other nome more left or center-left aligned (a sector that is deprived of new or good leaders now, but could mature someone for the next 10 years). Lula will try to hold a dollar a little and I guess that dreaming with 3 reais for one dollar is not asking too much. We also have a big push to give jobs for everyone, so I think it will also be a good scenario if you’re an investor that wants to come to Brazil. Even if you’re a expat, you could with ease live with 2k dollars/monthly in any city that you wish — my advice, keep out of big and unsecure cities like Sao Paulo and Rio and search for medium size city or even other states capital’s (as Curitiba, Campo Grande, Natal), there the same money will offer you more comfort and you have all amenities that you need. Also, try to learn portuguese, for God’s sake, nobody is obliged to understand whatever language you speak.
SCENARIO 3
Center-right wins in 2022 and the left or center-left come back in 2026
The big issue with the forces trying to make a third option for the elections next year is that they don’t have an expressive name or leader, neither the ones that they have could be strong against Bolsonaro or Lula. Is not impossible, but it is very difficult that those aligned with a liberal and pragmatic view have any chances in the upcoming elections. But, Brazil is unpredictable so everything can happen. This is a scenario that will bring a lot of joy to the bankers, the industrial, the agrobusiness elite and anybody who could thrive in a scenario with a lot of cheap underpaid workforce ready to be exploited. If you fit in this scenario, bring your business to Brazil, we’ll be happy to give up our almost-none left working rights and receive anything to be able to put food on the table. At least, they won’t be as negacionist as Bolsonaro regarding the pandemic and things could stabilize little by little. As funny as it sounds, I think that this scenario gives even more power to the left to make a big return in 2026, since people will be craving even more for a change.
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What will truly happens is the one million dollar (or reais) question. Anyways, as my mother uses to say, while some cries others sell tissues. It is, besides instability, a good moment to invest in Brazil, you don’t need to put much money to do almost any kind of business and he still have hope for a better future starting in 2023, after the new president takes the chair. Brazil still safer than cripto (at least some cripto).
Furthermore, while I wish everyday for people to understand and help each other in the pandemic, brazilians are somewhat ignorants in what regards their own health and this, History shows, only changes when we fill in the flesh, so my only option, as I can do nothing to change others, is take care of myself and my beloved ones and hope that this pandemic and this political scenario teaches people a lesson. I only wish we’re not so slow learners.
Keep and eye in the future, I should have more to say (if I don’t die).
Peace (and small amount of fury) for your hearts.
With love, from Brazil.
